The Tesla Competition is here!
We've been hearing this for years. And most of it has been hype from the legacy automakers who want people to believe that they will overtake Tesla. GM is a perfect example of the BS that companies will manufacture in order to shape public opinion.
But of course there will be real competitors to Tesla, but they won't be any American car company. If your guess is that the Japanese will do to the EV market what they did to the internal combustion engine (ICE) market in the 1970s with companies such as Honda, Toyota, and Nissan taking a lot of market-share away from American car companies, that would be a good guess, but it would be wrong. Those Japenese car companies have dropped the ball when it comes to EVs. So this time it'll be the Chinese automakers. And it's already happening.
In China there are dozens of EV car companies, making lots of EVs. Yes, some are hybrids, but most are BEVs (battery electric vehicles). And of all countries, China really needs to reduce the amount of ICE cars in favor of nonpolluting EVs.
Of all the Chinese EV makers, one is seen as the only real competitor to Tesla... BYD. But is it really? BYD is making multiple models which are selling well, but when you compare the two company's offerings, the choice is clear.
The BYD Han was made to be a direct competitor to the Tesla Model 3, but as the chart below shows, the Model 3 is lighter and has a smaller battery than the Han but has a longer range! And the Model 3 has more cargo space even though the two cars are about the same size on the outside (the Han has no frunk). And the Model 3 can charge a lot faster than the Han. And here's the kicker... The Han costs more! So the clear winner is the Tesla. They simply have better design, engineering, and manufacturing technologies.
And it's fine if Tesla and BYD end up being the two largest EV makers... Elon Musk said that Tesla can't supply EVs to everyone. His hope was that Tesla would get the ball rolling and then other automakers would make the switch as consumer demand increased. But we now see two clear categories of automakers: Those who see the handwriting on the wall and who are ramping up to make EVs as fast as they can even though the transition to EVs will cause lower short-term profits (the Chinese), and the automakers who don't want to make EVs because changing over will cause lower short-term profits (the shortsighted automakers or the ones who simply can't financially make the transition).
And I can't talk about this issue without mentioning that Toyota has tried mightily to stop EVs. They tried influencing politicians both in Japan and abroad, and ran negative TV ads in Japan aimed at both young people and kids that put EVs in a bad light. Why? They don't want ANY diminished profits, and they have so much debt that it's unlikely lenders will lend them the money needed to build EV factories. So they are a candidate for bankruptcy as their ICE car sales continue to fall, or they will be bought out by another car company that isn't as leveraged.
And back in 2018, Tesla short-seller Mark Spiegel showed this slide at his presentation "Why you should short Tesla". He was trying to say that Tesla was going to have so many competitors that Tesla would not make it.
And all but Lucid didn't make it, and Lucid is on its way out and was never a real Tesla competitor. And Spiegel also said that the Tesla Model Y was "vaporware" and would never be made. And yet, the Model Y was 2023's best selling car worldwide (of all cars, gas and electric). Spiegel lost billions shorting Tesla, and anyone who was convinced by him to short Tesla also lost their shirts.
And as far as China being a huge competitor as Spiegel predicted...
And the Model Y is twice the price of BYD's Yuan Plus! (And the Hongguang Mini is a deathtrap on wheels.) The CEO of Tesla predicts that Tesla will be #1 worldwide, with BYD in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th place. Notice, no mention of Ford, GM, VW, or Toyota. And with good reason.
Listen to legacy automakers whine about having to make EVs